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About the Economy blog
Explaining key issues that are influencing the economy's path—and policy debates—as they occur. The whole "Making Economics Make Sense" thing...
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Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?
UHERO blog post: There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely interest rate cuts this year and what...
Byron Gangnes
Jan 19, 20241 min read
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The Fed's Economy: A December Pre-Meeting Update
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its last meeting of the year tomorrow in Washington, DC. Here’s the economic picture they will...
Byron Gangnes
Dec 11, 20231 min read
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The FOMC and the labor market, a pre-meeting update
Today begins the two-day FOMC meeting on interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to...
Byron Gangnes
Jul 25, 20233 min read
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Base effects and inflation progress
Base effects are back in the economic conversation as inflation falls from its mid-2022 peaks. So what are base effects and why do they...
Byron Gangnes
Jul 24, 20232 min read
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Manufacturing's recession
The manufacturing sector continues to contract. The ISM® Purchasing Managers Index® (PMI®) for manufacturing has been below 50 for eight...
Byron Gangnes
Jul 5, 20232 min read
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Quick Take: Big Upward GDP Revision
The third estimate of first quarter GDP was released this morning, showing a sharp upward revision to previous estimates, from 1.3% in...
Byron Gangnes
Jun 29, 20232 min read
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Leading Indicators Leading Where?
The leading Economic Indicators® (LEI) index from The Conference Board fell for the fourteenth straight month in May. A fall of this...
Byron Gangnes
Jun 22, 20232 min read
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Enough labor market progress for the Fed?
There has been mixed progress in reducing labor market tightness. Will it be enough to prevent a Fed rate hike?
Byron Gangnes
Jun 12, 20234 min read
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Hard to get worked up over $100/bbl oil
On Sunday, OPEC made a surprise announcement that it would reduce crude oil production by 1 million barrels (bbl) per day, rising to...
Byron Gangnes
Apr 5, 20232 min read
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